Dawn – Siachen Glacier shrinking, says study

Faiza Ilyas

Karachi, 4 January 2013. The Siachen Glacier has been reduced by 5.9km in longitudinal extent between 1989 and 2009 because of rising temperatures, says a study published recently.

Human presence at Siachen may also be affecting the neighbouring glaciers of Gangotri, Miyar, Milan and Janapa which feed Ganges, Chenab and Sutlej rivers.

The study, Climate Data and Modeling Analysis of the Indus Ecoregion, has been written by Dr Ghulam Rasul of the Pakistan Meteorological Department as part of a project titled Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan. It was a European Union-financed project of World Wide Fund for Nature-Pakistan.

According to the study, Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindukush together make the largest mountain chain on earth and they are the custodian of the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions. The glaciers in these mountain ranges feed 1.7 billion people through seven large Asian river systems, including the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mekong and Yangtze.

These ranges are a blessing for South Asia as they protect it from the cold surges in winter associated with northerly winds.

“Since temperature maxima have been increasing at a greater rate, the thinning of ice and retreat of glacial extent has taken place simultaneously at an alarming rate. The decay estimates calculated by remote sensing techniques show that Siachen Glacier has reduced by 5.9km in longitudinal extent from 1989 to 2009. Thinning of its ice mass is evaluated at 17 per cent,” the study says.

A sharp decline in the mass of all glaciers has been seen since the 1990s. Accelerated melting process of seasonal snow and that of glacier ice from mountain glaciers have been adding to greater volume of water into the sea than normal discharges, it says.

Both precipitation and thermal regimes in Pakistan have suffered changes, especially in the recent two decades in line with a sharp jump in global atmospheric temperatures. Visible changes in hydrological cycle have been observed in the form of changing precipitation patterns, cropping patterns, droughts, water availability periods, frequency and intensity of heatwaves, precipitation events and weather-induced natural disasters.

According to the study, both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased in summer and winter almost throughout Pakistan.

Late onset and early winter ending will reduce the length of growing season for crops which will complete their biological life quickly causing reduction in yields as plants will gain accelerated maturity without reaching proper height and size. Early winter means that temperatures will start rising in February when wheat crop reaches the grain formation stage.

“Sharp rise in temperature will cause forced maturity of grains as a result neither grains will attain their proper size or weight nor will they accumulate optimum levels of starch thereby reducing the grain yield; pollination in banana, another important crop of the Indus delta, will be affected due to early winter and high spring temperatures. Thermal stress will result in a poor fruit set and dwarf yields.

“Such adverse effects are already visible and there is a dire need for adaptation strategies by introducing crop varieties which require shorter span and are resistant to stress conditions,” the study says.

The study lists recent extreme weather events which caused great losses to the socio-economic sector. They are: cloudburst events (2001, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011), prolonged droughts (1999-2002), historic river flooding (2010), tropical cyclones (1999, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011), severe urban flooding (2001, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011), heatwaves in spring (2006, 2007, 2010), snowmelt flooding (2005, 2007, 2010) and drought at sowing stage (2004, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011).

About the floods of 2010 and 2011, the study says that such back-to-back occurrence of the history’s worst flooding is at least a unique phenomenon in case of Pakistan. In 2010, intense precipitation concentrated over the elevated plains of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa due to interaction of three weather systems from east, south and north.

“Such interactions are very rare in the pre- and post-partition meteorological history of this region. Nor was it the heavy precipitation zone of monsoon season,” it says.

Similarly, another historic climatic anomaly occurred in 2011 when the monsoon axis set its orientation from head of Bay of Bengal to southern Sindh which was commonly found parallel to the Himalayas in case of heavy precipitation in Pakistan.

“Rains storm persisted for a couple of weeks over the Indus delta and adjoining areas experiencing arid climatic conditions.

Generally, this region receives less than 200mm rain during the year but in a couple of weeks some eastern parts gathered precipitation exceeding 1000mm. Poor slope of land, heavy soil and abandoned drainage infrastructure exaggerated the situation and a disaster occurred in the area,” the study says.

http://dawn.com/2013/01/04/siachen-glacier-shrinking-says-study/

The Tribune – Antony: No hasty decision on revoking AFSPA in J&K

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, November 10. Defence Minister AK Antony today reiterated that there would be no “hasty decision” on revoking the much-debated Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) from Jammu and Kashmir.

“The violence level in Jammu and Kashmir has come down, but at the same time, infiltration attempts are on the rise and it’s a matter of concern,” the Defence Minister said on the sidelines of a function to mark the 48th foundation day of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). “As I have said earlier, we cannot take a decision on AFSPA in a hasty manner,” he said.

On being asked if there were efforts being made through track-II dialogue on demilitarisation of the Siachen glacier, Antony said: “No, we are not for that. Our stand on Siachen is very clear and there is no change in our stand”.

India wants authentication of the present positions. New Delhi has always insisted it will pull back troops only after joint “authentication” of the frontline along the 109-km Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) — the name of the de facto border on the glacier. The AGPL has never been marked on the ground or on any document accepted by both sides.

If Pakistan violates a de-militarisation treaty, it would enjoy easier access to Siachen, leaving India at a disadvantage.

New Delhi wants international guarantee against any violation. Pakistan resists “authentication” as a pre-requisite to de-militarisation.

On corruption in the deal to buy 12 VVIP copters, Antony said: “We are probing the issue and have sought details. The Ministry of External Affairs has been told to gather more facts. If foul play is revealed, we will act.”

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2012/20121111/main1.htm

The Hindu – Siachen was almost a done deal in 1992

Special Correspondent

Chennai, 9 June 2012. Pakistan and India had reached a near agreement in 1992 on the Siachen dispute after Islamabad assented to recording the existing troop positions in an annex, but the deal was never operationalised because the Indian political leadership developed cold feet.

Pakistan Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani said recently that it was time the two countries resolved the dispute. He said this during a visit to the region after an avalanche earlier this year on the Pakistani side killed more than 100 soldiers and civilians.

The text of the 1992 negotiating drafts — obtained and reproduced by The Hindu — shows just how close the two sides were to such a resolution two decades ago: the Pakistani delegation offered a proposal that met India’s demand of recording existing ground positions before withdrawal of troops from a proposed zone of disengagement.

The talks that year, the sixth round both countries had held on the issue, took place in New Delhi from November 2-6, 1992.

Pakistan’s proposal of indicating in an annexure the areas the armed forces of the two sides would vacate and redeploy to found immediate acceptance among Indian officials. The Indian delegation was led by N.N. Vohra, then the defence secretary.

“We had finalized the text of an agreement at Hyderabad House by around 10 pm on the last day”, Mr. Vohra, who is now the Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, told The Hindu. “Signing was set for 10 am. But later that night, instructions were given to me not to go ahead the next day but to conclude matters in our next round of talks in Islamabad in January 1993”. “Of course, that day never came”, Mr. Vohra added. “That’s the way these things go,” he said.

Narasimha Rao was Prime Minister at the time and the BJP’s campaign against the Babri Masjid was in high gear. Siachen quickly receded from the government’s list of priorities.

The 1949 ceasefire agreement delineated the Line of Control until point NJ9842, after which, it said, it would run “thence north to the glaciers”. In 1984, fearful of adverse Pakistani moves, Indian soldiers moved north and eventually occupied most of the highest points on the glaciers. The ‘Siachen conflict’ was born.

The Indian side’s proposal dated November 3, 1992 contained the following elements: delineation of the Line of Control north of NJ 9842; redeployment of troops on both sides to agreed positions, but after demarcating their existing positions; a zone of disengagement subsequent to the redeployment, with both sides committing that they would not seek to intrude into this zone; a monitoring mechanism to maintain the peace in the ZoD.

Pakistan’s proposal was as follows: Both sides would vacate their troops from the triangular area between Indira Col in the west, Karakoram Pass in the east and NJ 9842; troops on both sides would withdraw to a point south of NJ 9842, to the pre-1972 Simla Agreement positions; neither side shall attempt to alter the status of the demilitarised triangle pending delineation of the LoC north of NJ 9842 by a joint commission.

The refusal to authenticate ground positions and the reference to Karakoram Pass — a point well to the east of NJ9842 and a red rag to the Indians — led to an impasse. As a way out, the Pakistani side, led by its defence secretary, offered the following compromise: “The armed forces of the two sides shall vacate areas and re-deploy as indicated in the annexure. The positions vacated would not for either side constitute a basis for legal claim or justify a political or moral right to the area indicated”.

Mr. Vohra said that by the time the talks concluded, an agreement had been reached which fully adhered to the Indian negotiating brief of troop positions being recorded one way or the other and that the Pakistani proposal that the LoC would run to the Karakoram Pass had been dropped. But the agreement was never signed.

In 2005, the two sides were once again said to be nearing agreement to demilitarize the region, but the deal fell through — Pakistan was no longer interested in demarcating the ground positions. After Pakistan’s Kargil adventurism, such a demarcation became for the Indian side a non-negotiable, especially to the Indian Army, along with a mechanism to monitor any intrusions into a demilitarized zone in the Siachen region.

On Monday, the two countries will hold yet another round of talks on Siachen with no sign of a softening of attitudes on either side.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article3509787.ece?homepage=true

The Hindu – In Siachen, weather is enemy as search for avalanche victims continues

Anita Joshua

Gayari, Siachen, 4 May 2012. Forever hostile to all life on the towering heights of this glacier, the weather has been particularly nasty ever since April 7 when a massive avalanche wiped out an entire battalion of the Pakistan Army in the Gayari sector at 13,000 feet.

If overcast skies bring along with them sub-zero temperatures and blizzards, bright sunlight and rising temperatures raise the possibility of more slides that caused the avalanche in the first place.

The weather changes come with little announcement as a group of journalists saw for themselves while being helihopped by the Army to Siachen’s Ground Zero on Thursday.

For the first time, an Indian journalist was included in the group being taken to witness the rescue operations. Rescue workers have been struggling for nearly a month to recover the bodies of the 139 men — 8 of them civilians. But until now, not a single one has been found. Only some traces of the battalion headquarters have surfaced: a few life jackets, pieces of the soldiers’ igloo accommodation, and medicines were found about 600 metres from the original location. That was on April 23, over a fortnight after the avalanche.

Nothing has been found since.

Yet the search continues, and the Chief of the Army Staff, Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, reiterated, while talking to the visiting journalists, that it would continue until the bodies, each one of them, was found.

“The minimum we can do is recover the bodies,” said General Kayani, on his third visit since the disaster. On a previous visit, he had said: “If we need to dig out this mountain, we will do so to get the bodies,” no matter how long it took.

The weather and the inhospitable terrain have taken more lives on this side of the glacier as well as on the Indian side than the actual conflict, and now it is the most slowing factor of the rescue work.

This is difficult to fathom from afar or from the pictures that are being regularly released by the Army about the work going on in the Gayari sector to find the bodies, but it is immediately apparent to the visitor.

The father of Major Zaka ul-Haq, the battalion second-in command who perished in the avalanche with his men, had accompanied the COAS to the site. Fighting back his tears, the bereaved father from Muzzafargarh in the Punjab province, urged the Army to declare them dead, something it has not done so far. He conceded that it was only after coming here that he realised what an uphill task was under way to find the bodies.

The Army had apparently considered making the announcement on April 30 — a day designated as ‘Yaum-e-Shuhada’ when the military remembers the sacrifices of its personnel — but held back.

Every day brings a new challenge for the rescuers, and the barren greyness of the area is a stark reminder of the futility of a war in the highest battlefield of the world. This is an area where the mountains seek to challenge the skies and man on the Pakistani as well as the Indian side of the glacier has sought to challenge both not only at his own peril but also nature’s.

Putting the task of the rescuers in perspective, Commander of the Force Command Northern Areas Ikram ul Haq said the area that requires to be dug up is 3.6 million cubic feet in mass. Of this, 1.73 million cubic feet, or roughly more than a third, has been excavated.

Since the avalanche took place around 2 a.m., most of the men would have been indoors, so the focus of the rescuers is on tracking down the main accommodation area.

The area has been zeroed in on primarily with the help of two rocks — one of which bears the words ‘Welcome’ and was near the entrance, and the other ‘Allah Hafiz,’ near the exit.

Still, according to Major General Haq, the rescue teams would be able to hit the ground level of the main accommodation by this monthend only.

“The problem is that after every 20-30 feet, we are encountering huge boulders which we are now blasting, despite expert advice against it.”

Pointing to a boulder sitting in front of the ‘Bilafond La Wall’ — which the Army had thought would protect the battalion headquarters from slides that are frequent in the area — he said it measured 22 metres in height and 44 metres in visible length. “This boulder came down with the avalanche which came at such speed and intensity that the Bilafond La Wall could not stop it.”

Similar boulders are being encountered all along the way by rescue workers. To avoid triggering more slides in the process of blasting, the boulders are being blasted in the morning as “this is the only way we can make our way through this,” despite the heavy machinery that has been shipped in from Rawalpindi. Ferrying the machinery itself has proved to be a challenge as it has to be done by road. At Juglot in Gilgit district
on the Karakoram Highway, they have to be dismantled as the bridges en route cannot take their weight, and then put back together at Goma, a base camp of the Army. All this takes a minimum of a fortnight, and on any given day 30 per cent of the equipment cannot be used due to snags, caused mainly by the weather and rocky terrain.

The equipment and expertise brought in by some European countries were of no use as they are made for homogeneous snow-laden avalanches, and not the mix of snow, sand, slush and hard rock that they encountered in Gayari.

The ground-penetrating radars donated by China too had the same limitations. The mercurial swings in the weather have ensured that for nearly the entire month, helicopters could not fly into Gayari. This is a delayed winter, and at a time of changing seasons, slides are almost a daily occurrence. On one day, there were as many as 54 of them, said the FCNA commander, and each slide is preceded by very strong blizzards.

He is of the view that the April 7 avalanche was also triggered by the late winter and frequent changes in temperatures.

An added problem is that the avalanche blocked the river Gayari, changed the lay of the land even as it took lives.

After days of work, a water course has been opened to clear the lake that was formed by the blockade on the river.

Simultaneously, a wall had to be constructed around the artificial lake to prevent the water from inundating the area marked out for excavation. The construction has disturbed the area so much that it is no longer safe for habitation.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article3384842.ece 

The Tribune – Talks on Sir Creek from May 14; India, Pakistan to discuss counter-terrorism on May 24, 25

Tribune News Service

Islamabad, May 3. India and Pakistan are set to hold talks on two key issues later this month as part of the resumed dialogue process. Top officials will discuss the Sir Creek issue on May 14-16 in New Delhi while the Home/Interior secretaries will meet to discuss counter-terrorism in Islamabad on May 24-25, Pakistan Foreign Office spokesman Moazzam Khan said in Islamabad. This was subsequently confirmed by MEA spokesperson Syed Akbaruddin here.

Indications are that both countries consider the Sir Creek issue as one which can be resolved if there is political will on both sides. Even at their meeting in New Delhi earlier this month, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari had expressed the hope that the Sir Creek and Siachen issues were doable.

The Home/Interior secretaries are expected to sign the liberalised visa agreement between the two countries. The accord is likely to ease restrictions on travel and promote trade and economic relations.

India and Pakistan revived their peace process in February last year after a gap of over two years following the 26/11 Mumbai attack.

The two sides are said to be in touch with regard to dates for talks on the Siachen issue. Once they have completed talks on oustanding issues at the official level, External Affairs Minister S M Krishna will visit Islamabad in July to review the progress in the dialogue process.

Islamabad is hoping PM Singh will be able to visit Pakistan before the year end. Zardari had renewed Pakistan’s invitation to Singh during his recent visit to India. The Indian leader was born at Gah village (now in Pakistan).

India has hardened its stance on Siachen, says Kayani

Islamabad: Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani contended on Thursday that India had hardened its position on the Siachen issue as compared to the 1989 stance it had adopted, saying that it “takes two hands to clap”. Speaking to the media during a visit to a high-altitude army camp in Siachen sector that was hit by an avalanche on April 7, Kayani said India had “toughened its stance” on the issue. India had earlier been demanding the approval of the boundary but now it had begun asking for the re-determination of positions, Kayani said. (PTI)

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2012/20120504/nation.htm#1

The Hindu – Withdraw troops from Siachen: Sharif

‘Pakistan should take the initiative even if India is not flexible’ 

Anita Joshua  Islamabad, April 17, 2012. The former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, urged India and Pakistan on Tuesday to withdraw their troops from the Siachen glacier, the world’s highest battlefield where the vagaries of nature claimed more lives than actual fighting.

Mr. Sharif also made out a case for Pakistan taking the initiative after visiting the Gayari sector of the glacier where round-the-clock efforts are on to dig out the bodies of the 124 soldiers of 6 Northern Light Infantry and 11 civilians buried under 80 feet of snow dislodged by an avalanche on April 7.

He is the first politician to make it to the site of the natural calamity that has left the nation pondering over the futility of manning the glacier, where not a blade of grass grows but billions have been spent by both countries to secure their northern-most frontiers. President Asif Ali Zardari was to have visited Gayari on Monday, but aborted his plans because of bad weather.

Speaking to journalists at Skardu after returning from Gayari, Mr. Sharif said the two countries should resolve the differences over Siachen and use the money more productively, for the development of the people.

Asked who should take the first step, he said Pakistan should take the initiative even if India was not flexible. Islamabad has long held that the Siachen dispute is a low-hanging fruit on the list of issues that need to be resolved between the two countries. Members of the security establishment argue that it is unfortunate that India is not agreeing to go back to the pre-1984 position first and then discuss the border demarcation further north of NJ 9842.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article3325261.ece?homepage=true

Dawn – Desperate rescue efforts at Siachen

Rawalpindi, 9 April 2012. Rescue workers used bulldozers on Sunday to dig through snow, boulders and slush in an increasingly desperate search for 135 people buried a day earlier by a massive avalanche that engulfed a military complex at the entrance to the Siachen glacier.

Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani visited the place to supervise the rescue operation as hopes of finding any survivors faded.

General  Kayani said during his visit that the army had mobilised all available resources with the help of the air force to carry out a full-scale rescue operation. He praised the morale and efforts of troops who were braving the harsh weather and inhospitable terrain.

The chief of the army staff instructed the commanders to optimally utilise all resources at their disposal and leave no stone unturned to reach the entrapped personnel.

He said efforts were under way to acquire latest technical equipment for the rescue.

The army chief said an avalanche of such a magnitude was unprecedented in the 20 years of the battalion headquarters’ existence at Gayari.

He said the calamity should not affect the morale of the troops defending the motherland at the highest battlefield. The army had always risen to the occasion and would come through this challenge as well, he said.

FCNA Commander Major-General Ikramul Haq apprised the COAS about the details of the rescue operation.

More than 36 hours after a wall of snow crashed into the remote army camp high up in the mountains, rescuers were yet to recover any survivors or bodies.

The camp was engulfed between 5am and 6am on Saturday — perhaps when some were sleeping — by a mass of snow, stones, mud and slush more than 1,000-metre wide and 25-metre high, the military said in a statement.

About 180 military personnel and 60 civilian rescuers were braving freezing temperatures at the inhospitable site close to the de facto border with India, in an area known as the world’s highest battlefield, it said.

Those missing from the camp include 124 soldiers from the 6th Northern Light Infantry battalion and 11 civilian contractors.

“There is no hope,” mountaineering expert Colonel Sher Khan told AFP. “You can survive only in the first 5-10 minutes.”

“It’s a huge, huge avalanche,” a military officer said, adding rescue work would take several days.

Specially trained search-and-rescue teams of army engineers equipped with the latest locating gadgets and heavy machinery had arrived, joining rescue units aided by sniffer dogs and helicopters, the military statement said. Some of the equipment was flown in on military aircraft.

“Adequate medical staff has been made available for the treatment of injured persons in forward field hospitals,” it added.

A tailor and two hairdressers were among the civilians missing.

Army spokesman Maj-Gen Athar Abbas said it was unclear whether any of the people who were buried were still alive.

“Miracles have been seen and trapped people were rescued after days… so the nation shall pray for the trapped soldiers,” he said while talking to a TV channel.

The spokesman said the headquarters that was buried was located in an area previously believed to be safe. At an altitude of around 4,500 meters, it is the main gateway through which troops and supplies pass on their way to more remote outposts.

It is situated in a valley between two high mountains, close to a military hospital, according to an officer who was stationed there in 2003.

More soldiers have died from the weather than in combat on the glacier, which was uninhabited before troops moved there.  (Agencies)

http://dawn.com/2012/04/09/desperate-rescue-efforts-at-siachen/

The Tribune – Avalanche buries 100 Pakistan soldiers in Siachen

Islamabad, April 7. A massive avalanche slammed into a Pakistan Army base in the Siachen sector close to the border with India today, burying over 100 sleeping soldiers under snow and triggering a frantic search for survivors.

The bodies of some soldiers had been pulled out of the snow, state-run Radio Pakistan quoted the army’s media wing as saying. It did not say how many bodies had been recovered.

Some reports suggested that 135 to 150 soldiers had been hit by the avalanche, but these could not be independently confirmed. The rescue operation will take some time to complete, the report said.

The avalanche hit a battalion headquarters at Gyari in Siachen sector at 5.45 am. Chief military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas told the media that over 100 soldiers of the Northern Light Infantry, including a Colonel, were trapped following the avalanche. “It’s a very massive scale slide.

They (soldiers) are under the slide but we haven’t lost hope. The rescue work is on, and we are keeping our fingers crossed,” he said.

Helicopters, sniffer dogs, additional troops and teams of doctors were sent to the desolate region as the army launched a massive rescue operation.

Army officials said heavy engineering machinery had been moved by air from the garrison city of Rawalpindi to speed up the rescue work.

However, state-run Pakistan Television said rescuers were facing difficulties in moving heavy machinery to the far-flung area. (Agencies)

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2012/20120408/main2.htm